How international conflicts and global crises can intertwine and affect the sources and levels of air pollution in urban areas

This paper analyses the intertwined impacts of the 2018 US sanctions on Iran and the COVID-19 pandemic (as examples of unplanned international conflicts and global crises) on the source and extent of air pollution in Tehran, the capital of Iran. The impacts are parametrized using the levels of criteria air pollutants (CAP) for 5 years (2015–2020), which were previously deweathered using the promising machine learning technique of Random Forest (RF). The absolute principal component scores-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) method and the bivariate polar plot (BPP) technique are used here to analyze the source apportionment profile of the city for the business as usual (BAU; 2015 to 2018), sanctions (2019), and COVID-19 and sanctions (2020) intervals. The results show the severe impact of the 2018 US sanctions on Tehran’s air quality (AQ); O3, NO2, CO, PM2.5, and PM10 levels increased by 117%, 55%, 20%, 35%, and 10%, respectively, while SO2 levels decreased by 30%. The sanctions also triggered a number of events, such as the disruption of the high-grade fuel supply chain and the Mazut crisis, which directly or indirectly accelerated the photochemical production of local tropospheric ozone to some extent. Sanctions also disrupted Tehran’s AQ response to the pandemic, with CAP levels decreasing by only 2–7% during the pandemic. The ozone and PM10 BPPs show that the source apportionment profile of the city is dominated by local anthropogenic emission sources, especially urban transport, after the sanctions and the pandemic. Results also show that the impact of soft wars, such as the US sanctions against Iran, on urban air quality degradation is much stronger than that of hard wars, such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

» Publication Date: 08/08/2024

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